THEY have survived the Great Crash, the Great Depression, World War II and the attempted assassination of Ronald Reagan. But fears are growing that the Academy Awards, universally known as the Oscars, may have to be cancelled for the first time in 80 years.
The tens of millions of fans around the world, who treat the awards like a celebrity horse race, would not be the only ones to suffer if the February 24 event were called off.
Movie stars, studio executives, socialites and gatecrashers are all aghast at the idea of being denied the lavish parties that accompany Hollywood’s biggest night.
Perhaps most aghast are the party organisers themselves - most of whom have solicited sponsorship deals to help to pay for events that can cost up to $US700,000 ($800,000) to stage.
Ballot papers have been posted to the Academy’s 5829 voters, who will decide which films and actors are nominated. The first round of voting will end on January 12.
But the awards season is at risk of becoming the highest-profile casualty so far of a stand-off between studios and writers that began two months ago.
The writers, represented by the Writers Guild of America, are demanding to be paid for television shows or films broadcast over the internet. The studios argue that online technology is untested, and that to agree to fees now could prevent them from experimenting with new methods of distribution.
The strike is starting to sting on both sides. Nightly news-talk shows, such as The Daily Show with Jon Stewart - who is scheduled to host the 80th Academy Awards - have been off the air for so long, staff fear ratings may have been damaged permanently, with viewers migrating to YouTube or video games.
But at the weekend there were signs of movement when TV host David Letterman’s production company, Worldwide Pants, reached an agreement with the leadership of the WGA. The deal will allow Letterman’s Late Show to return to the air in the US on Wednesday night, armed with his staff of comedy writers.
Other night-time talk shows, including The Tonight Show with Jay Leno, are scheduled to return this week too - but without writers.
In a statement, Mr Letterman said: "This is not a solution to the strike, which unfortunately continues to disrupt the lives of thousands. But I hope it will be seen as a step in the right direction."
So far films have been less affected by the strike because scripts were stockpiled in advance. Nevertheless, some big projects will suffer next year.
But the biggest question mark of all now hangs over Oscars night. The best indication of its ability to go ahead as planned will come this week - when the Hollywood Foreign Press Association decides if it will stage its January 13 Golden Globes ceremony, which has been held every year since 1944.
Before Christmas, the WGA refused to give its members permission to write material for the show, even though it granted a waiver for the smaller-scale Independent Spirit Awards.
The union also refused to allow the Globes organisers to use video clips that included work produced by its members. This could make the event impossible to stage.
Regardless of what happens at the Golden Globes, however, all eyes will be on the Oscars a month later. Since its debut in 1929, the ceremony has run every year for 80 years, surviving industrial disputes - and even the attempted assassination of Reagan in 1981, which delayed the ceremony by a day.
The Times